The Howard Myth

Last year Peter Brent looks at the Howard electoral victories (Time to puncture the Howard myth) and argues that we are neglecting the international context of those victories. Howard was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time of the economic cycle:

For example, when Howard took office he inherited a budget deficit, the profligate Labor government (the story goes) having not delivered a surplus since 1989-90*. Howard and his treasurer Peter Costello cut spending to bring about a surplus in 1997-8.

But by remarkable coincidence, over in the UK Maggie Thatcher delivered her last surplus in 1989, after which the Tory government ran only deficits. It was left to Labour’s Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to deliver the next surplus ... in 1998.

The reason of course was that what we call Paul Keating’s “recession we had to have” was really an international recession that all (or at least most) industrialised countries experienced and recessions turn surpluses into deficits.

And, also across much of the industrialised world, the next decade and a half saw sustained growth. It was a wonderful time to get elected, to get the new incumbency.